Saratov JOURNAL of Medical and Scientific Research

Возможности прогнозирования рецидива рака простаты после HIFU-аблации с помощью математического моделирования

Year: 2013, volume 9 Issue: №2 Pages: 314-320
Heading: Urology Article type: Original article
Authors: Popkov V.M., Fomkin R.N., Blumberg B.I.
Organization: Saratov State Medical University

Research objective: Creation of mathematical prognosis of model of local relapsing tumors in patients with prostate cancer after treatment by high-intensive focused ultrasound (HIFU). Objects and Research Methods: Results of treatment are estimated at 102 patients with morphologically localized prostate cancer proved at biopsy. For the purpose to analyze interrelation of prognostic factors and postoperative morphological research of prostate control biopsies after HIFU ablation with frequent development of relapses comparative statistical research of received data has been conducted. For construction of mathematical models of relapse prognosis after HIFU of prostates two methods of mul-tifactorial analysis of the data have been used: the discriminant analysis and logistical regress. Results: While planning treatment of patients after HIFU ablation of prostates it has been necessary to estimate morphological risk factors of local relapse of a neoplasm such as preoperative level of serum PSA, the sum of Gleason, severity of disease, presence of lymphovascular and perineural invasion. The offered formulas are worth while using in revealing of probability of development of relapses. The comparative analysis of mathematical models has showed that accuracy of prognosis of results of HIFU of prostates is high enough.

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